How Biden Can Support Ukraine’s Offensive
Clearly define victory, authorize strikes and sanctions, and secure MAGA-proof funding.
Ukraine has the initiative. After months of trench warfare, it has launched a lightning invasion of Russia that has rattled the Kremlin. To capitalize, it now needs President Biden’s help. He can do three things: work with President Volodymyr Zelensky to define victory; authorize strikes and sanctions that would deflate Russian oil revenue; and strengthen Ukraine’s war economy by securing long-term funding, financed by Russia’s frozen assets.
Messrs. Biden and Zelensky should define victory in clear and compelling terms: a secure eastern border, freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, and imminent Ukrainian accession to the European Union. These mutually reinforcing objectives would herald a Ukraine whose sovereignty, economy and democracy were stronger than before the invasion. That would be a strategic defeat for Vladimir Putin and a victory worthy of Ukrainians’ heroism.
For Ukraine to achieve that victory, Mr. Biden must authorize the use of U.S.-made fighter jets and ballistic missiles to disable Russian oil-refining sites. This would undercut Mr. Putin’s most important revenue source without raising global prices. In an essay for Foreign Affairs, three international energy experts explained why: “These strikes reduce Russia’s ability to turn its oil into usable products; they do not affect the volume of oil it can extract or export. In fact, with less domestic refining capacity, Russia will be forced to export more of its crude oil, not less, pushing global prices down rather than up.”
Earlier this year, Ukraine destroyed about 14% of Russia’s oil-refining capacity with drones. Imagine what it could do with F-16s and tactical missiles. Mr. Biden should let us find out—and also greenlight Ukrainian strikes on launch, logistics and troop-staging sites in Russia.
Additional sanctions would complement those strikes. Treasury officials have advocated tougher maritime sanctions to reduce Russian oil revenue. The White House has thus far resisted such efforts. That’s a mistake. Higher shipping costs from Western sanctions, paired with reduced refining capacity from Ukrainian strikes, would be a one-two punch to Mr. Putin’s petro state.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s economy could use a shot in the arm. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reports that she is close to a deal with Group of Seven and European Union leaders to lend Ukraine $50 billion, serviced by interest on the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets held by wealthy democracies. The linchpin will be getting the EU—which holds most of the money—to guarantee that the assets will stay frozen long enough to generate the proceeds.
A deal with Brussels would help MAGA-proof Ukraine’s defenses. Funding Ukraine with Russian money is popular even among Republican lawmakers. By investing long-term capital, Ukraine could turbocharge its defense industrial base.
This is Mr. Putin’s nightmare: Ukraine, stronger by the day, hitting hard at Russia’s war economy and fighting toward clear war aims. It’s the stuff victory is made of, and Mr. Biden can deliver it before he leaves office.
Mr. Auchincloss, a Democrat, represents Massachusetts’ Fourth Congressional District.
By: Representative Jake Auchincloss
Source: MassLive